Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
