Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”