A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
