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Business magnate Andrej Babis has clinched victory in the Czech legislative polls, although his populist ANO faction failed to achieve an overall majority, per preliminary results.

Based on current estimates, ANO obtained slightly below 35% of votes cast, securing them 81 seats in the 200-member chamber of deputies.

Babis – who previously served as the head of government from 2017 to 2021 – is projected to be invited to spearhead talks on establishing a fresh alliance.

Poll Results Raises Important Queries

This election cycle yielded no great upsets, yet leaves numerous uncertainties.

Scarcely any believed the present center-right alliance would last.

Virtually nobody disputed that Babis would come out on top.

Not many analysts anticipated he would secure adequate positions to rule alone.

Every one of these predictions – supported by each public opinion study during the last 24 months – have come true.

That represents the easy segment. However, what is ahead?

Alliance Talks Prepared to Commence

Babis will launch negotiations immediately – possibly potentially later today – with the two lesser right-wing eurosceptic parties that were able to exceed the 5% barrier: the opposed to the Green Deal Motorists for Themselves, and the anti-immigrant Liberty and Direct Democracy (SPD) party, led by Czech-Japanese entrepreneur Tomio Okamura.

It appears Babis will require an coalition with the two to form a ruling coalition.

Mutual Positions with the Drivers' Faction

ANO will have most in common with the Motorists. The pair already belong in the same European Parliament group – the "pro-sovereignty" Patriots for Europe, which Babis created alongside Viktor Orban of Hungary and the Austrian politician Herbert Kickl the previous year.

ANO shares the Drivers' doubts regarding the EU's carbon reduction objectives, and vows to adjust or oppose them outright.

The two factions are firmly opposed to local families shouldering a higher economic cost for renewable power, and both oppose the EU's restriction on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars after 2035.

Possible Difficulties with SPD

Interactions with the SPD may be more challenging.

To begin with, SPD contested this political contest in a formal alliance with various minor factions on the far-right, meaning they must allocate some of their seats to them.

And Okamura may not have complete authority over the MPs in his caucus – typically a cause for concern in partnership governments.

Babis has also explicitly rejected authorizing a public vote on participation in the European Union or NATO – a key political priority for the SPD.

Political Messaging

The head of ANO leaned into criticism of Ukraine in the final days of the political race, attacking the moderate-right leadership for offering "local citizens nothing, yet Ukrainian refugees everything".

But Okamura's demand for Ukraine's displaced people to be sent back collectively will likely be disregarded.

Administration Choices

Finally Babis could opt to rule alone, in a minority cabinet propped up by the Motorists and the SPD.